Real Madrid vs. Barcelona: Preview, predictions, odds for El Clásico

The Supercopa final will be a Clásico! Which club has won more of the previous finals between Real Madrid and Barcelona? What are the key clashes? Who will win?

All-time head-to-head

In all competitions, Madrid have 105 wins, Barcelona have 101 wins, and there have been 52 draws.

What happened in the last Clásico?

October's 4-0 humbling of Real Madrid at the Bernabéu was the peak of Barcelona's early season form. It was a triumph for Hansi Flick's high-risk high line and a shock to Madrid's system, sparking a mini-crisis for Los Blancos. But it was also a game won -- despite the scoreline -- on razor-thin margins. If Madrid, and especially Kylian Mbappé, had been a bit more clinical, and exploited Barça's defence with more precision, the result might have been very different.

How Real Madrid's and Barcelona's seasons have gone so far

Real Madrid

Carlo Ancelotti's side already have two trophies in the bag for 2024-25: the UEFA Super Cup and the FIFA Intercontinental Cup. They're looking to add a third in Jeddah, and that's with a team that is yet to truly find its rhythm.

Madrid started the season slowly -- draws at Mallorca and Las Palmas in August showed a concerning lack of cohesion -- and there's been some high-profile defeats along the way, notably to Lille, AC Milan and Liverpool in the Champions League, and that home thrashing from Barça. There's been criticism of Mbappé, and injuries, especially to Dani Carvajal, have weakened the team.

But overall, the trend is one of gradual improvement. Jude Bellingham has been the star -- his all-round game is now arguably even better than last season's heroics -- with Vinícius Júnior not far behind. Mbappé's rate of goal scoring has improved, even if he hasn't hit top form yet. The weak link is the defence, and especially the full-backs, with Lucas Vázquez struggling to replace Carvajal's defensive output.

Barcelona

Barcelona's season can be broken down into two parts: before November and after November. Before November, they won 12 of 14 games, scoring four or more goals in seven of those matches, including in wins against Madrid and Bayern Munich. Since November, they have won seven out of 13 games and lost five, including shock home defeats against Las Palmas and Leganés.

Various reasons have been offered for their dip. Raphinha suggested there was some fatigue, Lewandowski has talked about the team's mentality in the "smaller" games and there was a period when they were without Yamal. Opposition players and coaches have also spoken about how they successfully targeted Barça's high defensive line, which yielded such devastating results for them earlier in the season.

Beating Madrid, after back-to-back wins at the start of 2025 against Barbastro and Athletic Club, will fuel the sensation they have turned the corner from what Flick dubbed a "s--- November."

Key clashes

Mbappé vs. the Barcelona defence

Mbappé was caught offside a career-high eight times -- six of them in the first half -- when the two teams met in October. And when he wasn't offside, his finishing was wayward. But that slump came in the midst of a dry spell of seven games with just one goal.

Since then, Mbappé has been scoring more regularly, finding the net in four consecutive games in December. He also netted in both of Madrid's finals so far in 2024-25, against Pachuca and Atalanta. A big performance against Barça on Sunday would be the highlight of his season so far, and the defining "I'm him" moment everybody has been waiting for.

Yamal vs. Mendy

Yamal showed no sign of ill-effects from an ankle injury as he returned by scoring the second goal in the semifinal win against Athletic on Wednesday. Ferland Mendy knows all about the threat the 17-year-old poses having been dizzied by him at the Bernabéu in October. The battle between the two could decide this game.

Yamal's numbers may not be as impressive as Raphinha's and Lewandowski's -- although he's still scored seven goals and provided 12 assists this season -- but Barça are always better when he's on the pitch. He has started 20 games this season and Barça have won 17 of them. He demands attention on the right and, if he doesn't score or assist, it creates more space for others.

Clásico predictions

Dan Thomas

Real Madrid 3-2 Barcelona. There will be goals. At both ends. Even against Mallorca in the semifinal, Madrid looked vulnerable at times, and Barcelona's defence isn't as strong as it was. It'll come down to which team is more clinical. Bellingham should star, again, and Vini Jr. will have a point to prove, after looking unhappy at being substituted towards the end of the Mallorca game. It'll be fun.

Shaka Hislop

Real Madrid X-X Barcelona. It's hard to disagree with Alex that there will be goals. The first one will be especially key. If Barça get it, it will force Madrid to be more open than they ordinarily might be. If Madrid get it, Barça have a habit of chasing games earlier than they need to. Therefore, I think this will mirror the last two finals between the teams, with whoever scores first eventually winning comfortably. I'm just not sure who.