2025 NCAAF SP+ Rankings: Early Season Projections, Teams to Watch, and Key Insights
An in-depth look at the 2025 NCAAF SP+ rankings, top teams, conference breakdowns, and early-season surprises to keep an eye on.
2025 NCAAF SP+ Rankings Overview
As spring camps approach, the excitement for the 2025 college football season is building. Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings provide an early projection of team strengths and weaknesses, offering a glimpse into what to expect next season. Here’s a breakdown of the key insights and teams to watch as we gear up for the 2025 NCAAF season.
Key Factors in SP+ Projections
- Returning Production: Accounting for over 60% of the projection, this factor looks at how much of last year’s talent is back on the roster, adjusted for transfers and attrition.
- Recent Recruiting: Evaluating the caliber of new players and incoming transfers, this accounts for about 14% of the projection and highlights potential breakout stars.
- Recent History: Focusing on the past three seasons, this factor (20% of the projection) provides insight into a team’s consistency and program health.
Top 10 SP+ Teams for 2025
| Rank | Team | SP+ Rating | Off. SP+ | Def. SP+ | Special Teams SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 28.0 | 38.6 | 10.6 | 0.3 |
| 2 | Alabama | 26.1 | 39.1 | 13.0 | 0.2 |
| 3 | Penn State | 25.3 | 39.1 | 13.8 | 0.1 |
| 4 | Georgia | 24.5 | 37.9 | 13.3 | 0.6 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 23.4 | 37.3 | 13.9 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Oregon | 22.6 | 39.5 | 16.9 | 0.5 |
| 7 | Texas | 21.9 | 32.0 | 10.1 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Tennessee | 21.3 | 33.6 | 12.3 | 0.2 |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 20.2 | 34.5 | 14.3 | 0.3 |
| 10 | LSU | 19.5 | 39.7 | 20.2 | 0.1 |
Teams to Buy and Sell
Buy:
- Alabama: Despite losing key players, Alabama’s strong recruiting and top-tier returning production keep them in the SP+ top 3.
- Missouri & Tennessee: Both teams are poised for strong seasons, with SP+ projections ranking them higher than many expect.
- Miami: After a solid 2024, Miami’s defensive improvements and new QB Carson Beck could lead to another strong campaign.
Sell:
- Texas: Despite high expectations, their 103rd-ranked returning production raises questions about their ability to maintain elite status.
- Indiana & Illinois: Both teams overperformed in close games last season and may regress in 2025.
Conference Breakdown
The SEC remains the deepest conference, with an average SP+ rating of +14.9, led by Alabama, Georgia, and Texas. The Big Ten follows closely, with Ohio State and Penn State leading the way. The Big 12 and ACC are neck and neck, while the Sun Belt and AAC round out the mid-tier conferences.
Conclusion
The 2025 NCAAF season promises to be unpredictable, with SP+ providing an early look at which teams could rise or fall. Keep an eye on transfer portal moves and spring camp developments as these projections evolve.
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