Finn Russell's Kicking Struggles: A Deep Dive into Scotland's Six Nations Performance

Finn Russell, Scotland's co-captain, has experienced notable difficulties with his kicking during the ongoing Six Nations tournament. According to Opta statistics, Russell's performance off the tee in this tournament has been a far cry from his previous season's consistency, where he missed only one of 24 kicks.

In the current campaign, Russell has managed to convert just three out of eight attempts across Scotland's three matches, significantly below expectations. Opta's 'expected points' model, which accounts for the position of kicks, a kicker's historical success rate, and specific venue factors like altitude, indicates that Russell has underperformed by 5.3 points compared to what was anticipated.

Analysis of Key Misses

• Against England at Twickenham, Russell missed all three conversion attempts, including a crucial last-minute kick that could have turned the game in Scotland's favor. Despite scoring a try, wing Duhan van der Merwe's positioning out wide may have inadvertently complicated Russell's kicking angles.
• Observers suggest that Van der Merwe could have attempted to cross closer to the posts to improve kicking conditions, a strategy often recommended to optimize conversion success rates.

Impact of Refereeing Decisions Referee Pierre Brousset's instruction to adjust the placement of the tee closer to the touchline might have influenced the outcome of Russell's final attempt against England. This adjustment, moving the approach two meters wider, slightly decreased the conversion's success probability from 58% to 55%.

Russell’s other unsuccessful kicks also occurred on the left side of the field, with two near-identical misses from almost the same position.

Comparison with Other Kickers In contrast, Italy's Tommaso Allan and England's Fin Smith have emerged as overachievers in this tournament, with Allan outperforming expected metrics by 3.5 points. Smith, who delivered a match-winning kick against France, also remains a top performer.

Meanwhile, Scotland’s replacement kicker Blair Kinghorn has shown better efficiency, converting three out of four attempts after replacing the injured Russell in the second round.