Sam Darnold's Rollercoaster: The Uncertainty of the Comeback Player Award

For six tumultuous seasons, Sam Darnold battled his way through the mediocrity of the NFL. Once a highly-touted top-five draft pick in 2018, Darnold's career was marred by lackluster performances during his tenure with the New York Jets and the Carolina Panthers, plus a forgettable year as a backup with the San Francisco 49ers.

When he signed with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024, expectations were low—especially after the young rookie quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, suffered a preseason injury, thrusting Darnold into the starting role. Notably absent from early MVP conversations, sportsbooks initially didn’t even list him, and those who did offered him odds as high as 300-1.

To everyone’s surprise, Darnold led the Vikings to an incredible 5-0 start, showcasing his talent with a completion rate of 65.9%, totaling 724 yards and nine touchdowns in key games against the 49ers, Texans, and Packers. His impressive String of performances led many bettors, including George "Riley" Panagakis, to believe he should be a frontrunner for the AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year award.

Confident in Darnold’s abilities, Panagakis placed a significant $1,000 wager on him at +1000 odds after Week 1, citing Darnold's high draft pedigree and surrounding talent at wide receiver. "I'm not just throwing darts; I'm making picks for reasoning, and I think he's a legitimate candidate," Panagakis reflected.

Darnold's trajectory mirrored that of the recent winners of the Comeback Player of the Year, particularly Seattle's Geno Smith and Joe Flacco of the Browns, both of whom turned their careers around spectacularly to lead their teams into the playoffs. However, contention arose around the ambiguous eligibility criteria outlined by the Associated Press, particularly the phrase: "other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season." This sparked debate among voters.

While many sportsbooks fluctuated their odds throughout the season based on public sentiment—taking Darnold on and off the board—it became clear that he had garnered significant attention and betshare. At ESPN Bet, he accounted for 18.5% of total bets, highly competitive with other contenders like Joe Burrow, who ultimately closed as the favorite. Amidst mounting odds and minimum clarity on voter intentions, Darnold's betting line swayed dramatically, reflecting wider uncertainties inherent in award races.

The final decision on the Comeback Player of the Year remains precarious, hinging on how voters interpret the AP's new guidelines. While Burrow recorded an MVP-quality season, skeptics argue whether his minor injury hampers his narrative as dramatically as Darnold's perceived resurgence. As the impending NFL Honors approach, all eyes will be fixed on the outcome, with bettors anxiously awaiting to see whether Darnold, Burrow, J.K. Dobbins, or even Damar Hamlin will rise to the occasion.

Ultimately, the ambiguity surrounding the Comeback Player of the Year award is a fascinating exploration into the intertwining worlds of sports betting and human sentiment, an epicenter of disagreement that showcases the unpredictable nature of this beloved game.