Projecting the CFP Top 12 After Week 2

Week 2 of the NCAAF season has brought some clarity and some confusion to the College Football Playoff (CFP) landscape. Here’s a detailed look at how the top 12 teams stack up and what their performances mean for their playoff chances.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0)

Why they could be here: The Buckeyes’ win against Texas is a strong argument for the top spot. Julian Sayin’s accuracy and consistency as a first-year starter, combined with a stifling defense, make Ohio State a formidable contender. Why they could be lower: The committee might still favor LSU for their season-opening road win. Need to know: Ohio State’s 2024 national title isn’t considered by the committee. Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State.

2. Miami Hurricanes (2-0)

Why they could be here: Miami’s win against Notre Dame sets them apart. Carson Beck’s performance and a dominant defense are key factors. Why they could be lower: Both wins were at home, which might not impress the committee as much as LSU’s road win. Need to know: Miami has the highest chance in the ACC to reach the playoff. Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State.

3. LSU Tigers (2-0)

Why they could be here: LSU’s win at Clemson is still significant, despite Clemson’s struggles. Why they could be higher: The committee values road wins, and LSU has one against a potential CFP Top 25 team. Need to know: LSU is ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric. Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss.

4. Florida State Seminoles (2-0)

Why they could be here: FSU’s Week 1 win against Alabama is notable, and their dominant performance in Week 2 keeps them in the conversation. Why they could be lower: Beating an FCS opponent doesn’t earn bonus points. Need to know: FSU’s in-state rivalry games could impact their playoff chances. Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson.

5. Oregon Ducks (2-0)

Why they could be here: Oregon’s win against Oklahoma State is viewed favorably by the committee. Why they could be lower: Both wins were at home against weaker opponents. Need to know: Oregon’s schedule doesn’t include a ranked opponent until later this month. Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State.

6. Penn State Nittany Lions (2-0)

Why they could be here: Penn State’s clean game against FIU shows discipline. Why they could be lower: Questions remain about their offense. Need to know: Penn State’s nonconference lineup could haunt them. Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State.

7. Tennessee Volunteers (2-0)

Why they could be here: Tennessee’s offense has been consistently dominant. Why they could be higher: Their win against a Southern Conference team isn’t impressive. Need to know: Tennessee has a 51% chance to make the CFP. Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia.

8. Georgia Bulldogs (2-0)

Why they could be here: Georgia remains undefeated, but their performance hasn’t always been convincing. Why they could be lower: Their wins against weaker opponents might not stack up well. Need to know: Georgia has the best chance to earn a No. 1 seed. Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas.

9. Texas Longhorns (1-1)

Why they could be here: Texas’s convincing win against San Jose State boosts their confidence. Why they could be lower: Their win doesn’t significantly impact the committee’s view. Need to know: Texas’s offensive improvement is noticeable. Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia.

10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-1)

Why they could be here: Notre Dame’s close loss to Miami keeps them in the top 10. Why they could be lower: Other teams have two wins. Need to know: Notre Dame’s opponents’ performance is critical. Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC.

11. Illinois Fighting Illini (2-0)

Why they could be here: Illinois’s win against Duke is a strong nonconference victory. Why they could be lower: Their win wasn’t flawless. Need to know: Illinois’s schedule is manageable. Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State.

12. Oklahoma Sooners (2-0)

Why they could be here: Oklahoma’s win against Michigan is a significant nonconference victory. Why they could be lower: Their ground game needs improvement. Need to know: Oklahoma’s head-to-head result could be a tiebreaker. Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas.

Bracket Projections

Based on the rankings, the seeding would be:

First-round byes:

1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
2. Miami (ACC champ)
3. LSU (SEC champ)
4. Florida State

First-round games: 12 USF (American champ) at 5 Oregon 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at 6 Penn State 10 Notre Dame at 7 Tennessee 9 Texas at 8 Georgia

Quarterfinal games: At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential, and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.