Introduction

Since the NFL realigned to eight four-team divisions in 2002, 25 teams have gone from worst to first in their division in a single season. This phenomenon highlights the league's competitive balance and the potential for dramatic turnarounds. As we look ahead to the 2025 season, several teams stand out as strong candidates to make this leap.

Key Indicators for Turnaround

Several factors contribute to a team's ability to go from worst to first:

• Schedule Strength: Teams with easier schedules have a better chance of improving their record.
• Health: Teams that suffered significant injuries in the previous season often see improvement with healthier rosters.
• Talent Acquisition: Offseason additions, especially in key positions, can significantly boost a team's performance.

Top Teams to Watch

1. San Francisco 49ers, NFC West

• 2024 Record: 6-11
• Odds of Winning Division: 35.8%
• Odds of Making Playoffs: 62.4% The 49ers are favored to win the NFC West due to their easy schedule and returning key players from injury. Their DVOA of 6.7% was the best ever by an 11-loss team, indicating strong underlying performance.

2. Chicago Bears, NFC North

• 2024 Record: 5-12
• Odds of Winning Division: 14.9%
• Odds of Making Playoffs: 36.1% The Bears are expected to improve with Caleb Williams in his second year and new additions on the offensive line. However, their tough schedule poses a significant challenge.

3. New England Patriots, AFC East

• 2024 Record: 4-13
• Odds of Winning Division: 14.0%
• Odds of Making Playoffs: 33.9% With new head coach Mike Vrabel and several key additions, the Patriots are poised for improvement. Their easy schedule further enhances their chances of a turnaround.

4. New Orleans Saints, NFC South

• 2024 Record: 5-12
• Odds of Winning Division: 11.6%
• Odds of Making Playoffs: 18.4% Despite being last in FPI, the Saints have a better chance in the weak NFC South. Rookie QB Tyler Shough could provide a spark, but the team's aging defense remains a concern.

5. Tennessee Titans, AFC South

• 2024 Record: 3-14
• Odds of Winning Division: 8.9%
• Odds of Making Playoffs: 14.8% The Titans hope rookie QB Cameron Ward can improve their offense, but their defense projects poorly. Significant improvements are needed on both sides of the ball.

Conclusion

The 2025 NFL season promises to be exciting, with several teams positioned to make a worst-to-first turnaround. Factors such as schedule strength, health, and offseason acquisitions will play crucial roles in determining which teams rise to the top of their divisions.