2025 NFL Season FPI Projections: Eagles Dominate, Saints Struggle

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its 2025 NFL season projections, and the Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to win Super Bowl LX. However, the competition is fierce, with several teams closely trailing the Eagles in terms of ability and championship potential.

Eagles Lead the Pack

The Eagles have a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the FPI model. This is the lowest chance for a preseason favorite since the model began in 2015. The Eagles' strength lies in their balanced team, boasting the best defense in the league with key players like linebacker Zack Baun and defensive tackle Jalen Carter.

Top Contenders

The NFL's elite group includes the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, and Bills. These teams are separated by at most a single point in FPI rating, indicating a highly competitive season ahead. All five teams have at least an 8% chance to win the Super Bowl, and there is a 50% chance that the Super Bowl winner will be one of these teams.

Saints at the Bottom

At the other end of the spectrum, the New Orleans Saints find themselves ranked 32nd in the FPI. The sudden retirement of veteran quarterback Derek Carr has left the Saints in a precarious position, relying on rookie Tyler Shough or second-year player Spencer Rattler to lead the team.

Playoff and Draft Projections

The FPI also provides insights into playoff chances and potential draft orders. The Buffalo Bills have the highest chance to win their division at 65%, while the Cleveland Browns are the most likely team to secure the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft.

Key Takeaways

• Eagles are the favorites with a 12% chance to win the Super Bowl.
• Saints are ranked last due to quarterback uncertainties.
• Bills have the highest division win probability at 65%.
• Browns are likely to secure the No. 1 draft pick.

For a detailed breakdown of all 32 teams, visit ESPN's FPI page.