The 2025 NCAAF season is just around the corner, and the updated SP+ rankings provide a comprehensive look at the teams poised for success. With the transfer portal slowing down, we can now assess the impact of offseason moves on team projections. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors shaping the rankings and what to expect this fall.

What is SP+?

SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It focuses on the most sustainable and predictable aspects of the game, offering a predictive view rather than a résumé ranking. The preseason projections are based on three primary factors:

1. Returning Production: This accounts for roster updates, including transfers and attrition, and combines last year’s SP+ ratings with adjustments for returning players.
2. Recent Recruiting: The caliber of incoming talent, including transfers, is evaluated based on recent recruiting rankings.
3. Recent History: A team’s performance over the past four seasons provides insight into overall program health.

Top Teams in the SP+ Rankings

The top of the rankings remains largely unchanged, with Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State, and Georgia holding their positions. Texas has moved into the top five, while Clemson and Michigan have seen slight improvements. Notable shifts include Tennessee dropping five spots after Nico Iamaleava’s transfer and Oklahoma climbing into the top 15.

Here are the updated SP+ rankings for the 2025 season:

Conference Breakdown

The SEC continues to dominate, with three of the top five teams and a commanding lead in average SP+ ratings. The Big Ten follows closely, while the Big 12 and ACC remain competitive but face challenges with depth. Among Group of Five conferences, the AAC, Sun Belt, and Mountain West are tightly contested.

CFP Contenders

The strength of schedule plays a crucial role in determining College Football Playoff (CFP) contenders. Teams like Penn State, Ohio State, and Alabama are well-positioned for a playoff run, while Notre Dame’s favorable schedule could also pave the way for a second consecutive CFP appearance.

Key Takeaways

• The transfer portal has significantly impacted team rosters, with FBS teams averaging over 19 transfers this offseason.
• Coaching changes have been factored into the projections, with teams like Oklahoma seeing slight improvements.
• The SEC and Big Ten remain the strongest conferences, with multiple teams in the top 10.

As the season approaches, these rankings provide a solid foundation for understanding the competitive landscape of the 2025 NCAAF season.