Divisional Round NFL Playoff Best Bets

Welcome to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs! We have four games this weekend, including three regular-season rematches.

It's important not to overanalyze results of those regular-season games -- even the recent ones -- as game plans get a lot more particular in the postseason.

Here are my favorite bets for this weekend's NFL action and a same-game parlay to consider.

All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.

Game picks

Los Angeles Rams UNDER 17.5 team total points (-115)

The Rams delivered a strong defensive outing to get past the Minnesota Vikings in the wild-card round, and Matthew Stafford looked like vintage playoff Stafford. But I'm not sold on the Rams' offense, which produced only 20 of the Rams' 27 points against Minnesota. In the Rams' three previous games where their starters saw regular action, they scored 13, 19 and 12 points, respectively. A huge 44-point outing against the Buffalo Bills in Week 14 is doing a lot to elevate the Rams' offense in the national eye.

Now Los Angeles must face a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has been among the best in football for much of the season, with a defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio who was excellent against the Rams in 2018 when he was the DC for the Chicago Bears and again in Week 12 this season in a 37-20 Eagles win. There is also inclement weather expected in Philadelphia on Sunday, with a 75% chance of some wintry mix and temperatures around freezing. That weather should affect the Rams, a warm-weather team that plays its home games in a covered stadium and likes to throw the ball, much more than the Eagles, who rely on their run game to move down the field.

Philadelphia's offensive success against the Rams' defense is another factor. The Eagles' 0.29 EPA per rush against the Rams in Week 12 was tied for their best single-game figure in any game this season, as Philadelphia patiently chunked the Rams' light boxes with 26 Saquon Barkley carries (for 255 yards and two scores) and another 12 from Jalen Hurts (for 39 yards). The Rams' defense wins when its front wins, but that will be much harder to do against the Eagles than it was against the Vikings.

I lean toward an Eagles cover, but with harsh weather inbound, I'll just stick to a total.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 41.5 total points (-110)

A 41.5-point total is precariously low for a playoff game, but there are several arguments for the under here. It is expected to be cold in Kansas City, with temperatures in the high teens to the low 20s, which should have a serious impact on a warm-weather dome team like the Texans. In addition, Houston placed yet another receiving option on injured reserve this week (TE Cade Stover), leaving it with Nico Collins, John Metchie III, Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz as pass catchers Saturday. Tank Dell, who was an integral part of the passing attack in the Week 16 meeting between these teams (six catches, 98 yards and a score) isn't around to save Houston this time.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, will get a significant boost to their defense with the return of starting outside cornerback Jaylen Watson to the lineup. The Chiefs allowed -.01 EPA per dropback with Watson on the field this season and 0.10 EPA per dropback without him. With Watson back, they can press both corners up and feel safe sending bracket coverage wherever Collins lines up.

The Texans know that to win they must put up a defensive performance like the one they exhibited last week. The Chiefs will try to negate the effect of Houston's pass rush with quick dropbacks and plenty of runs -- the sort of plays that create moderate gains and keep the clock running. Without four giveaways, like Houston forced last week, Kansas City's drives will stay long and require tons of yardage to score.

I'm expecting plenty of field goals from both sides and a Texans passing offense that never gets off the ground.

Player props

Jared Goff UNDER 33.5 passing attempts (-120)

I expect the Detroit Lions to get whatever they like against the Washington Commanders' defense Saturday, which means two things: plenty of runs and plenty of long completions. According to Next Gen Stats, the Commanders have allowed more yards before contact per carry, the worst success rate on under-center runs this season and the second-worst explosive run rate surrendered (13.7%). The Lions, meanwhile, have been the best under-center running team in football, boasting the highest explosive run rate and second-highest success rate. Jahmyr Gibbs and the rest of the Lions backfield should feast.

When the Lions run it well, they can activate the play-action pass and rip off big gains. On play-action, Goff is first in success rate and sixth in EPA per dropback, averaging 9.83 adjusted net yards per attempt.

Throw in the fact that Commanders drives tend to be incremental, time-consuming efforts, given their lack of explosive plays and penchant for fourth-down conversions, and there simply isn't enough time in the game for Goff to get to 34 passing attempts on the projected game script.

David Montgomery 50+ rushing yards (-105)

I understand some consternation. Montgomery's MCL injury was initially suspected to be season-ending, until a third medical opinion gave Montgomery the runway to rehab the knee and make himself available for the playoffs. Reports from Montgomery and the Lions' coaching staff indicate the veteran back is good to resume his usual role beside Gibbs in the league's most fearsome backfield tandem.

Markets don't reflect the same level of confidence. Montgomery is projected for 30-35 fewer yards than Gibbs, even though the pair has split handoffs fairly evenly when both are healthy. Of course, Gibbs has more explosive run potential than Montgomery, and the Commanders' run defense is liable against exactly those sorts of runs that the Lions major in, as noted above. Here's another note: ESPN's run play classifications rank the Lions as the second-most effective outside zone team in football, ripping off 5.1 yards per play and the Commanders as the second-worst team defending outside zone, allowing 4.9 yards a pop. The Lions run outside zone on 52% of their total rushing plays.

Because this is such a sweet matchup for the Lions' running game, I'm inclined to buy on the Montgomery rushing market and will take some alt lines at 60+ and 70+ rushing yards. If further reports come out prognosticating great health for Montgomery, this line will move, but even if he is on a pitch count, Montgomery can hit enough chunk gains to get us over this number.

Zach Ertz UNDER 29.5 receiving yards (-115)

The Lions use man coverage at a whopping 47.7% rate, the highest in football, and blitz at a 38.4% clip, the third-highest rate behind only the Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The more predictable the coverage, the easier it is to predict who gets the football. And in the case of the Commanders, I would expect Ertz to fall out of favor against man defenses.

Ertz sees a target on 23% of his routes against zone coverage but only 17% of routes against man coverage, and the tight end's yards per route run drop from 1.78 to 0.99. Like most tight ends, Ertz's usage rate tails off against the blitz, going from a 20.6% target rate on routes down to 18.8% and from 1.46 yards per route down to 1.30. Daniels has shown that he often is a first read-and-scramble quarterback against the blitz and typically is looking for a wideout in isolation before he tucks and runs.

I don't have Ertz getting enough volume to clear 30 yards, even if it's a high-scoring game.

John Metchie III 4+ receptions (-120)

How will the Texans' passing game operate during the rest of the postseason without Stefon Diggs and Dell? Seven of C.J. Stroud's first 14 targets against the Los Angeles Chargers went to Metchie, who was clearly an integral part of the game plan. The targets didn't amount to much production, as Metchie finished the day with four catches for 28 yards on eight targets, but the passes were largely quick, underneath throws meant to keep the sticks moving. Metchie had a rough day at the catch point.

The Texans moved away from targeting Metchie as Collins got hot and they built a huge second-half lead. Against the Chiefs, it's unlikely they get as big of a lead at any point. It's far more likely to be a negative game script that leads to more pass attempts from Stroud, spelling opportunity for Metchie underneath. The Chiefs have done well bracketing star receivers under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, and I would imagine Collins will see a heavy dose of double coverage and/or star cornerback Trent McDuffie traveling with him.

In these teams' Week 12 matchup, Collins was opposite McDuffie on a majority of his routes, which allowed Dell to go off for six catches on seven targets for 98 yards and a touchdown on just 20 routes before he left the game with injury. Metchie was not available in that contest, but he will likely see Jaylen Watson and Chamarri Corner both outside and in the slot this time around.

Assuming a pass-happy script for the Texans and a continued willingness to feed Metchie underneath targets while Collins draws coverage, it shouldn't be hard for Metchie to get to 4+ receptions.

Derrick Henry 2+ receptions (+145)

Running backs have had great success catching passes against the Bills all season, tallying 1.43 yards per route run on a 22.9% target-per-route rate, which ranks second and third in the league, respectively. As a result, Justice Hill, the Ravens' passing down back, saw predictably inflated number in Week 4 against the Bills, posting six catches on six targets for 78 yards. Not a bad day at the office.

Same-game parlay (SGP)

Eagles -6.5, Rams-Eagles UNDER 47.5 total points, Cooper Kupp UNDER 44.5 receiving yards, Kenneth Gainwell 10+ rushing yards (+600)

I feel strongest about the Philadelphia defense against the Rams' offense this week, given both the matchup and the weather, so I'll take the Eagles and an alternative under here in a game I assume the Eagles will control on the ground.

I love taking Gainwell rushing in game that projects to be handoff-heavy for Philadelphia. Barkley can only go so long until he needs a breather, and the Eagles' offensive line makes running easy for anyone, let alone a fine back like Gainwell.

We've been on Kupp's under religiously in this column over the past couple of months, and we aren't fixing what ain't broke against an elite Eagles secondary.