The year of the champion

2024 has been the year of the champion in the UFC, with 11 of the 16 title fights resulting in the defending champ retaining their belt. This is a departure from recent years, where there have been many new champions crowned. While some may see this as a sign of stability at the highest level, others are eager to see new challengers emerge in 2025.

The contenders

Jeff Wagenheim predicts that there will be five new champions at the end of December 2025. He also provides analysis on why he believes these changes will occur, as well as which fighters he thinks will retain their titles.

Heavyweight

Tom Aspinall will face Jon Jones for the heavyweight title. Aspinall has been impressive in his recent fights, while Jones has been reluctant to fight. If Aspinall can defeat Jones, he will become the new heavyweight champion.

Middleweight

Khamzat Chimaev will face the winner of the UFC 295 rematch between Dricus Du Plessis and Sean Strickland. Chimaev has been dominant in his recent fights, and he is likely to become the new middleweight champion if he can defeat the winner of the rematch.

Welterweight

Shavkat Rakhmonov will face Belal Muhammad for the welterweight title. Rakhmonov has been impressive in his recent fights, and he is likely to become the new welterweight champion if he can defeat Muhammad.

Men's bantamweight

Umar Nurmagomedov will face Merab Dvalishvili for the men's bantamweight title. Nurmagomedov has been impressive in his recent fights, and he is likely to become the new men's bantamweight champion if he can defeat Dvalishvili.

Women's bantamweight

Kayla Harrison will face Julianna Peña for the women's bantamweight title. Harrison has been impressive in her recent fights, and she is likely to become the new women's bantamweight champion if she can defeat Peña.

The champs to keep

In addition to his predictions for new champions, Wagenheim also provides analysis on which fighters he thinks will retain their titles in 2025. These include:

Light heavyweight

Alex Pereira is likely to retain his title in 2025, but he could lose to Magomed Ankalaev if the UFC books that fight. Even if Pereira wins, he will face multiple challenges throughout the year, giving Wagenheim multiple opportunities to be wrong.

Lightweight

Islam Makhachev has the ability to hold onto the belt for as long as he desires, but his desire to do so may not last if he steps out of the way of rising teammate Usman Nurmagomedov. However, Usman would first have to move from Bellator to the UFC, and Wagenheim doubts that will happen within the next year.

Featherweight

Ilia Topuria is likely to retain his title in 2025, but he has expressed a desire to challenge for the lightweight title. If he does move up in weight, he could face challenges from the likes of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway.

Men's flyweight

Alexandre Pantoja is likely to retain his title in 2025, as there is no one in the 125-pound division who can give him a fight. He has been dominant in his recent fights, and he is likely to continue his reign as champion in 2025.

Women's flyweight

Valentina Shevchenko is likely to retain her title in 2025, as she is still a dominant force in the women's flyweight division. While she may not be as dominant as she once was, she is still a difficult opponent for anyone in the division.

Strawweight

Zhang Weili is likely to retain her title in 2025, as she will face undefeated Tatiana Suarez in her next title defense. If she can defeat Suarez, she will likely face few challenges for the rest of the year.