Projecting the Futures of the Top QBs in the 2025 NFL Draft: Which Have Bust Potential?

In this article, we present QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2025 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy's original QBASE model and Alexandre Olbrecht and Jeremy Rosen's functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, plus how many years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability, and while it rewards improvements over time, it penalizes one-year wonders. The quarterbacks below are listed in order of our Scouts Inc. rankings. Interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward, a value of zero Total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A) is replacement-level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. We run 50,000 simulations to provide a distribution of the number of times that each quarterback falls within a particular range. Here are our projections for the top seven QBs in the 2025 class: