Early-Season Pitching Breakouts: Why These Arms Are Fantasy Keepers

While small sample sizes carry inherent risks in MLB analysis, historical gems like 2024 Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal proved early indicators can foreshadow dominance. As Tristan Cockcroft examines, these five 2025 starters show all the markers of impending greatness:

1. Spencer Schwellenbach (Atlanta Braves)

• Key Stats: 2.47 ERA in final 12 starts of 2024 | 27.1% K-rate
• 2025 Improvements: Fastball location vs lefties (42% whiff rate ▲ from 10%)
• Analysis: Despite workload concerns post-Tommy John surgery, Schwellenbach's expanded pitch efficacy (5/6 offerings generating positive Run Values) suggests elite upside. His cutter remains the lone developmental focus.

2. Cristopher Sanchez (Philadelphia Phillies)

• Velocity Spike: Sinker at 96.1 mph (▲ from 94.5 mph in 2024)
• Statcast Insight: .268 xwOBA on sinker vs actual .349 (Dodgers outliers skewing early numbers)
• Outlook: Improved velocity differential makes his lethal changeup/slider combo even more deceptive. A prime candidate for ERA regression toward 3.50-3.75 range.

3. MacKenzie Gore (Washington Nationals)

• Pitch Mix Revolution: Career-high 64% first-pitch strikes ▲
• Putaway Arsenal: 35-48% whiff rates on secondaries (curve/slider/changeup)
• Caution Flags: Fly-ball tendencies (39% GB rate) require ballpark/monitoring.

4. Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers)

• Driveline Breakthrough: Splitter velocity at 88.1 mph (▲ 2 mph)
• Yankees Test: 11 whiffs on splitter vs NYY proving elite swing-and-miss potential
• Durability Note: Has exceeded 110 IP just once since 2019 – sell only for top-40 SP value.

5. Jesus Luzardo (Philadelphia Phillies)

• Stuff Grades: 96.8 mph FB (career high) | 18 whiffs on slider/sweeper
• Health Hedge: Injury history caps trade value – hold unless receiving top-30 SP return
• Dark Horse Case: Frontline starter potential if reaching 180 IP (surpassed just once in career).

Fantasy Takeaways

• Target Window: Prioritize buying low on Sanchez/Mize before ERA corrections
• Sell Triggers: Gore/Luzardo become movable if GB rates don’t improve by June
• Keeper League Tip: Schwellenbach’s youth (24) gives him the highest long-term ceiling of this group.

Statistical sources: Statcast, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant (through April 8, 2025)