The Potential vs. Production Debate: Evaluating NFL Draft Prospects Like Shemar Stewart

The NFL Draft's Eternal Dilemma: Potential vs. Production

Every year, NFL scouts and front offices face the same challenging question: How much weight should be given to a player's physical traits versus their actual on-field production? This debate is particularly intense when evaluating edge rushers like Texas A&M's Shemar Stewart, whose measurables scream first-round pick but whose college stats (4.5 sacks in three seasons) raise eyebrows.

The Shemar Stewart Conundrum

• Combine Performance: At 6'5" and 267 lbs, Stewart ran a blistering 4.59-second 40-yard dash and posted a 40-inch vertical jump. These numbers would be impressive for a skill-position player, let alone a defensive lineman.
• Lack of Production: Despite these elite traits, Stewart managed just 4.5 sacks in 37 college games. For comparison, Penn State's Abdul Carter had 12 sacks in just 16 games last season.
• Analytical Bright Spots: Stewart's average time to first pressure (2.43 seconds) was actually the best in FBS last season, suggesting his impact went beyond traditional stats.

"Sometimes the stats don't tell the whole story," Stewart said at the combine. "It's all about the film."

The Coaches' Perspective

NFL coaches are often torn between:

1. The allure of coaching up raw talent ("I can get the sacks out of him")
2. The risk of drafting a workout warrior who never develops

Miami Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel summarized the challenge: "We don't have a farm system. You don't have the luxury of redshirting them in the National Football League."

Historical Precedents

• Success Story: Travon Walker (2022 No. 1 pick) had modest college stats but blossomed into a 20.5-sack player over his last two seasons.
• Cautionary Tale: Vernon Gholston (2008 No. 6 pick) never translated his elite combine performance into NFL production.

Other Prospects Facing Similar Scrutiny

1. Mykel Williams (Georgia): 14 sacks in 3 seasons but battled injuries
2. Landon Jackson (Arkansas): 16 career sacks but combine dominator

The Bottom Line for NFL Teams

As one NFC general manager noted: *"The guys with both traits and numbers are easy calls. A player with all the traits but no production? Those are tough 'Whys?'"**

The 2025 draft will test teams' ability to project development, with Shemar Stewart serving as the ultimate case study in the potential vs. production debate.