2025 NFL Draft Edge Rusher Deep Dive: Projections, Sleepers, and Breakout Candidates

Projecting the Next Generation of NFL Pass Rushers

The 2025 NFL Draft class presents an intriguing mix of high-ceiling edge rushers with varying risk profiles. After last year's unusual defensive drought in Round 1, scouts anticipate multiple defensive playmakers hearing their names called early this April.

Methodology Overview

Our projections utilize SackSEER, the gold standard for evaluating pass rush prospects, analyzing:

• Scout consensus rankings
• Athletic testing metrics (40-yard dash, vertical/broad jumps)
• Three-cone drill performance
• College production metrics (sacks, tackles for loss)
• Pass deflections per game

Top Tier Prospects

1. Abdul Carter, Penn State

• Projection: 28.0 sacks through 5 seasons
• Scouting Report: Converting from off-ball linebacker creates projection challenges. While his 12-sack junior campaign shows elite potential, predraft workout absences raise questions.
• Pro Comparison: Hybrid of T.J. Watt's instincts and Marcus Davenport's physical tools

2. Shemar Stewart, Texas A&M

• Projection: 25.2 sacks through 5 seasons
• Scouting Report: Freakish athlete (4.59 40 at 267 lbs) with better tape than production. Development timeline mimics Danielle Hunter's trajectory.
• Red Flag: Just 1.5 sacks/season in College Station

3. Mike Green, Marshall

• Projection: 23.9 sacks through 5 seasons
• Scouting Report: FBS sack leader (17) brings polished technical skills. Elite 6.85 three-cone shows rare change-of-direction ability.
• Warning: Wild projection range from bust (Damontre Moore) to star (Aidan Hutchinson)

Mid-Round Value Plays

Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College

• Why He's Intriguing: National leader in pressures (69) complements 16.5 sacks. Technician with NFL-ready hand usage.

Mykel Williams, Georgia

• Bust Potential: Ankle concerns suppress projection, but SEC pedigree could outperform metrics.

James Pearce Jr., Tennessee

• Trait to Love: 4.47 speed with SEC production (17.5 sacks over 2 years)

Small School Sleeper

David Walker, Central Arkansas

• Projection: 16.1 sacks through 5 seasons
• Scouting Report: Dominant FCS production (30 career sacks) following Jared Allen's path. Ideal Day 3 target.

Key Takeaways

The 2025 edge class presents:

1. No consensus generational talent
2. Multiple high-variance prospects
3. Value in Day 2 with technical rushers
4. Small-school options for patient teams

Statistical Note: Since 2010, 63% of edge rushers selected top-10 reached 25+ sacks in first 5 seasons.