Lightweight title fight: Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan

• How Makhachev wins: Makhachev needs to use his striking skills to get the edge and pressure Tsarukyan into the fence. If he keeps Tsarukyan backing up, he will win this fight.
• How Tsarukyan wins: Tsarukyan needs to correct the mistakes from the first fight and use his much-improved striking to pull off the upset. He also needs to show that he won't get out-grappled in this fight.
• X factor: Striking. I think this fight plays out on the feet, where Tsarukyan is the more diverse striker with more knockout potential. But Makhachev has also proven that he's much more than a grappler, with great striking and excellent head kicks.
• Prediction: Makhachev by decision.

Men's bantamweight title fight: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

• How Dvalishvili wins: Dvalishvili needs to be the best version of himself, relentless with his takedown attempts and taking advantage of Nurmagomedov attempting kicks to secure takedowns.
• How Nurmagomedov wins: Nurmagomedov needs to neutralize Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling to change things up. He needs to use those beautiful kicks in his arsenal, even at the risk of being taken down.
• X factor: The war of attrition in the later rounds. I think this will be a nail-biter going into the championship rounds and it will boil down to who doesn't get tired.
• Prediction: Dvalishvili By decision.

Betting analysis

• Makhachev to win by KO/TKO or decision: Unless Makhachev runs into an opponent who can knock him out, I don't believe he will lose a fight anytime soon. Tsarukyan is likely his biggest threat in terms of matching Makhachev's wrestling, but as we saw in Tsarukyan's last fight against Oliveira, he tends to leave himself open for submission attempts. I don't think Tsarukyan can outgrapple Makhachev for five rounds or catch the champion off guard with a knockout strike. Look for Makhachev to strike from a distance and control the fight from top position whenever they go to the mat.
• Nurmagomedov to win by KO/TKO or decision: The big question in this matchup is: Can Dvalishvili break Nurmagomedov down with his menacing pace and outwrestle him for five rounds? I don't believe he can. There is no secret to Dvalishvili's game plan: Wrestle early and as often as possible. Nurmagomedov will be too much for Dvalishvili to handle on the feet, which will make the champion's takedown attempts too predictable. Dvalishvili has shown that he can be hit while on the feet, having been knocked down in multiple fights. If Nurmagomedov catches him with a big shot while Dvalishvili is shooting for a takedown, Nurmagomedov is too good to allow him back in the fight.

Parker's best bets for other notable fights on the card

• Middleweight: Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
• Women's bantamweight: Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez