Final Four Showdown: Expert Betting Analysis for Auburn vs. Florida and Houston vs. Duke

NCAAM Final Four Betting Preview: Breaking Down the Championship Contenders

The 2025 Men's Final Four presents a historic clash of all four No. 1 seeds, setting the stage for an unforgettable weekend at the Alamodome in San Antonio. With elite programs colliding, we analyze the smartest betting angles for Saturday's blockbuster matchups.

Florida Gators vs. Auburn Tigers (6:09 PM ET)

Key Bet: Under 160.5

• Defensive Battle Brewing: Florida ranks top-25 nationally in both 2PT% and 3PT% defense
• Auburn's Health Concerns: Star forward Johni Broome (18.2 PPG, 8.7 RPG) managing injuries
• Gator Reinforcement: Micah Handlogten's late-season emergence strengthens Florida's interior defense
• Recent Trends: Auburn has held 6 straight opponents under 70 points
• Previous Meeting: Florida won 90-81 in February without Alijah Martin (now healthy)

Advanced Metric Insight: Both teams rank in the top-30 for adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom)

Duke Blue Devils vs. Houston Cougars (8:49 PM ET)

Key Bet: Houston +5

• Home State Advantage: Houston playing just 200 miles from campus
• Clemson Blueprint: Only team to beat Duke since January uses similar slow tempo (Houston ranks 351st in pace)
• Turnover Dominance: Cougars force 16.4 TOs/game (3rd nationally)
• X-Factor: Milos Uzan's emergence (14 PPG, 50.6% 3PT last 21 games)
• Defensive Juggernaut: Houston allows just 0.87 points per possession (1st nationally)

Critical Matchup: Houston's physical guards vs. Duke's size (all rotation players 6'5"+)

Expert Betting Insights

1. Under Trending: 7 of last 10 Final Four games went under the total
2. No. 1 Seed History: Favorites are 14-6 ATS in Final Four matchups since 2015
3. Coach K Factor: Jon Scheyer seeking 2nd title in 3 years as Duke head coach
4. Bruce Pearl's Challenge: Auburn making first Final Four appearance since 2019

Pro Tip: Monitor Broome's status - if limited, consider Florida -2.5 as additional value

All odds current as of April 4, 2025. Lines may move - check ESPN BET for latest updates