Sunday MLB Betting Guide & Fantasy Baseball Lineup Picks: Expert Pitching, Hitting, and Betting Tips

Pitching Spotlight: Top Sunday Starters & Streaming Options

ESPN's Forecaster ranks Sunday's starters by projected fantasy points (FPTS) using standard scoring (2 points per win, -2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K). Key metrics include:

Bryan Woo (SEA) leads with 12.6 FPTS vs TEX (-175 ML) despite high ER risk (1.7 projected).
Nick Pivetta (BOS) edges ATL with 11.2 FPTS and strong K upside (6.1 projected).
Underrated Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) makes Rogers Centre debut (7.8 FPTS) vs TOR's shaky lefty bats.

Streaming Targets:
✅ Andrew Heaney (PIT): Faces Marlins' LH-weak lineup (8.6 FPTS, 54% W%).
✅ Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL): Blue Jays struggle vs command pitchers (+110 value).

Avoid:
❌ Jacob deGrom (TEX): Mechanics issues persist (6.4 FPTS, 4.2 IP projection).

Explosive Hitting Matchups

Weather Boost:

Tampa Bay Rays LHBs (Aranda/Lowe) thrive in 80°F heat vs COL's Ryan Feltner (7.6 FPTS).

Park Factors:

Yankees LHBs (Rice/Grisham) target Brewers' Civale in Yankee Stadium's short porch.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+400 HR prop) leverages Rogers Centre's shallow CF (39.6% FB rate).

Betting Edge: THE BAT X Model Picks

Top HR Props (Expected Value):

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
- 23% hit probability | $15.55 EV
- Shallow CF fences at Rogers Centre (10th in MLB).
Leody Taveras OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
- 12% hit probability | $6.02 EV
- Globe Life Field’s low fence height (7th in MLB).

Pitcher Props:

Marcus Stroman UNDER 1.5 ER (+125): Yankees’ deep CF suppresses runs ($22.63 EV).
Robbie Ray UNDER 6.5 K (-140): Hitter-friendly umpire Manny Gonzalez ($18.38 EV).