UFC Fight Night Mexico City: Moreno vs. Erceg – Expert Breakdown, Betting Insights & Fight Predictions

UFC Fight Night Mexico City Preview: Moreno vs. Erceg

Former two-time UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno (21-7-2) returns to action against Australia's Steve Erceg (12-3) in a pivotal matchup at Mexico City Arena on March 29, 2025. With both fighters looking to reestablish themselves in the title picture, this main event promises fireworks at elevation (7,350 ft).

Fight Breakdown by Syndicate MMA Coach John Wood

Moreno's Path to Victory:

• Utilizes disciplined pressure and volume striking
• Capitalizes on cardio advantage in high-altitude conditions
• Strategic takedowns to drain Erceg's gas tank

Erceg's Winning Formula:

• Sharp counterpunching against Moreno's occasional wild exchanges
• Early aggression to disrupt Moreno's rhythm
• Avoiding prolonged striking battles

X-Factor:
Mexico City's thin air notoriously impacts fighters' endurance. Moreno's championship experience at elevation could prove decisive in later rounds.

Betting Analysis (via ESPN's Ian Parker)

Main Event Picks:
✅ Moreno to win (-245) – Demonstrated elite form against Albazi
✅ Over 2.5 rounds (-190) – Expect a tactical battle reaching championship rounds

Featured Card Bets:
🔥 Drew Dober (-110) vs. Manuel Torres – Veteran savvy over rising prospect
💥 Joe Pyfer (-310) vs. Kelvin Gastelum – Power striker against fading wrestler
⏱️ Medina/Gautier Over 1.5 rounds (-170) – Durability meets knockout power

Statistical Edge

Data: UFC Stats through 2024 season

With Moreno holding advantages in output and wrestling, the Mexican crowd could will their hometown hero to a decision victory in this ESPN2/ESPN+ showcase.