Breaking Down the 2025 NFL Win Totals

Now that NFL free agency has largely concluded and the draft is on the horizon, ESPN BET has released the initial win totals for all 32 teams heading into the 2025 season. The Buffalo Bills lead with an opening win total of 11.5, while the Cleveland Browns sit at the bottom with 4.5—though the New York Giants briefly held that spot before signing Russell Wilson.

Key Early Bets from Top Analysts

1. Washington Commanders UNDER 10.5 wins (-150) – Analyst Joe Fortenbaugh flags potential regression for the Commanders. Last year’s 12-5 record was inflated by luck in close games (+94 point differential suggested ~10.6 wins). A tougher 2025 schedule (AFC West/NFC North) and a middling defense (19th in EPA) add uncertainty.

   • Projection: 8.2 wins (Mike Clay)

2. Cleveland Browns OVER 4.5 wins (-135) – Seth Walder sees value in the Browns’ low total, citing quarterback flexibility (Kirk Cousins? Rookie draft pick?) and Kevin Stefanski’s play-calling. A five-win season is plausible.

   • Projection: 5.0 wins

3. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 11.5 wins (-115) – Ben Solak points to the 49ers’ defensive roster depletion and Brock Purdy’s limitations as reasons to fade their high total. The line has since dropped to 10.5.

   • Projection: 8.7 wins

Betting Odds Snapshot

Why These Bets Matter

• Market Movements: The Giants’ win total jumped from 3.5 to 5.5 after signing Wilson, showing how betting lines react to roster changes.
• Regression Alerts: Teams like Washington outperformed advanced metrics in 2024—a red flag for bettors.
• Draft Impact: QB moves (e.g., Browns, Giants) could further shift totals post-draft.

For updated odds, visit ESPN BET.