NCAA March Madness 2025 Sweet 16 Breakdown: Hot and Cold Teams Making Final Four Push

NCAA March Madness Heat Index: Sweet 16 Edition

The 2025 NCAA Tournament has delivered thrilling basketball action, with both the men's and women's brackets now narrowed down to the Sweet 16. While some teams have dominated their way through the first two rounds, others have stumbled despite advancing. Using advanced analytics, we examine which squads are peaking at the perfect time - and which ones might be on borrowed time.

Methodology

Our Heat Index compares each team's actual tournament point differential to their expected performance based on Sports-Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS). We also analyze individual player contributions using Game Score, a comprehensive metric that evaluates box score production.

Teams Heating Up at the Perfect Time

Men's Standouts:

#10 Arkansas Razorbacks [+11.8 over expected]
The tournament's Cinderella story, John Calipari's squad has upset Kansas and St. John's behind unexpected contributions. Forward Jonas Aidoo (+7.7 Game Score improvement) and guard Johnell Davis (15.5 PPG) have stepped up with Adou Thiero injured.

#6 Ole Miss Rebels [+11.6 over expected]
Sean Pedulla (20.0 PPG, +6.4 Game Score boost) has transformed into a March Madness star, leading the Rebels past North Carolina and analytics darling Iowa State.

Women's Dominators:

#3 LSU Tigers [+23.5 over expected]
Kim Mulkey's squad obliterated opponents by 42.5 PPG behind balanced scoring. Forward Sa'Myah Smith (+10.1 Game Score increase) has emerged as a breakout star.

#2 UConn Huskies [+16.5 over expected]
Paige Bueckers (34 points vs SDSU) headlines a deep roster where Azzi Fudd (+11.7 Game Score jump) is finally realizing her potential at the perfect time.

Teams Showing Concerning Signs

Men's Red Flags:

#1 Auburn Tigers [-9.0 under expected]
Despite winning, they've looked vulnerable. Johni Broome (-10.0 Game Score drop) must regain his Wooden Award form to survive Michigan.

#1 Florida Gators [-6.1 under expected]
Nearly eliminated by UConn, they'll need Alex Condon to bounce back from his tournament slump against Maryland.

Women's Warning Signs:

#1 Texas Longhorns [-5.1 under expected]
They've paced themselves so far, but Rori Harmon's scoring dip (6.5 PPG) must reverse against Tennessee's elite guards.

#2 TCU Horned Frogs [-4.6 under expected]
Sedona Prince's reduced rebounding and increased turnovers make them vulnerable against Notre Dame.

Key Sweet 16 Matchups to Watch

• Men: #3 Texas Tech vs #10 Arkansas - Can the Razorbacks' magic continue?
• Women: #2 UConn vs #3 Oklahoma - A potential Final Four preview

All Advanced Metrics via Sports-Reference SRS. Game Score formula accounts for points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and efficiency.