Fantasy Football Projections Deep Dive

As ESPN's fantasy football projections expert, Mike Clay reveals 41 fascinating observations from his 2025 research process that combines statistical analysis with subjective evaluation.

Tight End Spotlight

1. Trey McBride's Emergence: Since Week 8 2023, McBride commands a dominant 28.4% target share (9.0/game), averaging 6.8 receptions and 69.3 yards. Despite poor TD luck in 2024 (3 scores vs 7.9 expected TDs), his elite usage suggests breakout potential.

2. Mark Andrews' Decline: After five straight top-5 TE finishes, Andrews dipped to TE8 in 2024 with reduced targets (15% share) but career-high TD dependence (11 scores). Needs target rebound to regain elite status.

Quarterback Analysis

9. Bo Nix's Historic Rookie Year: Nix's 316.2 fantasy points rank 5th all-time among rookie QBs, joining Newton, Daniels, and Herbert. His dual-threat ability (92 carries, 430 yards) creates weekly upside despite modest 6.66 YPA.

10. Kevin O'Connell's Pass-Heavy Scheme: Three of O'Connell's last four offenses scored ≥80% TDs through air, benefiting Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson while limiting RB ceilings.

Running Back Breakdown

4. Bijan Robinson's Second-Half Surge:

   • Weeks 1-5: 17.0 touches, 87.2 yards/game (RB24)
   • Week 6+: 23.3 touches, 120.9 yards/game (RB1) Primed for massive age-23 season in Atlanta's run-heavy offense.

5. De'Von Achane's Elite Company: Joined McCaffrey, Barkley in 200+ carry/75+ reception club. Tua-dependent (22.6 PPG with, 9.8 without) but locked-in as Miami's featured back.

Wide Receiver Trends

19. Xavier Worthy's Late-Season Breakout:

    • Final 6 games: 26% target share (8.7/game)
    • 19+ points in 5 of last 6 Positioned for Year 2 leap with Rice's availability uncertain.

20. Puka Nacua's Target Dominance:

    • Weeks 10+: 37% target share (11.3/game)
    • Needs TD increase (9 in 28 career games) to reach elite tier.

Offensive Philosophy

2. Cardinals' Passing TD Consistency: Murray-era offense shows remarkable 51-55% passing TD rate annually, suggesting stable 2025 distribution.

3. Bengals' Pass-Heavy Identity: Cincinnati's +7-10% pass rate above expectation since 2022 continues with Burrow/Chase/Higgins.

4. Chargers' Misunderstood Scheme: Despite Harbaugh/Roman reputation, they were game-script-adjusted 9th pass-heaviest in 2024.

Key Fantasy Takeaways

• Buy: McBride, Robinson, Worthy, Achane (with Tua)
• Sell: Mark Andrews (TD regression), Colts WRs (Richardson's rush-heavy TD distribution)
• Monitor: Bijan's workload, Nix's development, Nacua's TD upside

For ongoing updates, follow Mike Clay's 2025 Projection Guide throughout the offseason.