2025 NCAA March Madness Sweet 16: Expert Bets, Odds & Deep Dive into Every Matchup

Sweet 16 Betting Preview: Breaking Down All 8 Marquee Matchups

The 2025 NCAA tournament reaches its thrilling crescendo as all four No. 1 seeds remain alive. Here's our data-driven analysis for each Sweet 16 showdown:

Thursday's Highlight Games

#2 Alabama vs. #6 BYU (7:09 PM ET)
Recommended Bet: BYU +5.5 (-110)

• Key Insight: BYU's 9-player rotation (all averaging 17.5+ minutes) counters Alabama's tempo perfectly. The Cougars' balanced scoring (all rotation players contribute 5.8+ PPG) exploits Bama's interior defensive weaknesses.
• Trend Watch: Under is 7-3 in Alabama's last 10 neutral-site games.

#1 Florida vs. #4 Maryland (7:39 PM ET)
Recommended Bet: Under 156.5 (-112)

• Defensive Showdown: Both teams rank top-14 in opponent 3P% defense. Maryland's allowed ≤71 points in 8 of last 9 games.
• X-Factor: Florida's road 3P% plummets to 33.9% (vs. 38.1% home).

#1 Duke vs. #4 Arizona (9:39 PM ET)
Recommended Bet: Under 153.5 (-115)

• Rematch Alert: Duke held Arizona to 55 points in November meeting. Wildcats shoot just 32.4% from deep at home.
• Hidden Strength: Despite offensive hype, Duke ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency.

#3 Texas Tech vs. #10 Arkansas (10:09 PM ET)
Recommended Bet: Texas Tech -5.5 (-108)

• Domination Inside: JT Toppin (5 double-doubles in last 6 games) gives Tech decisive paint advantage.
• Road Woes: Arkansas shoots 31.3% from 3 away from home – crucial against Tech's 37.1% 3P defense.

Friday's Must-Watch Battles

#2 Tennessee vs. #3 Kentucky (7:39 PM ET)
Recommended Bet: Tennessee -3.5 (-105)

• Regression Coming: Kentucky shot 50% from 3 in two regular-season wins (vs. Tennessee's typical 27.1% 3P defense).
• Revenge Narrative: Vols own +7.2 rebound margin – key on neutral court.

#1 Auburn vs. #5 Michigan (9:39 PM ET)
Recommended Bet: Auburn -8.5 (-110)

• Turnover Tsunami: Michigan's 337th-ranked TO rate (13.9/game) meets Auburn's top-10 ball security.
• Balanced Attack: Auburn boasts four guards shooting ≥37.9% from deep – all averaging double figures.

#1 Houston vs. #4 Purdue (10:09 PM ET)
Recommended Bet: Under 132.5 (-107)

• Clash of Styles: Houston's glacial pace (bottom-10 in possession speed) vs Purdue's suspect interior defense (341st in opponent 2P%).
• Defensive Juggernaut: Cougars allow NCAA-low 57.1 PPG and rank 1st in defensive efficiency.

Betting Takeaways

• Upset Watch: BYU's depth makes them live dogs vs Alabama
• Total Trends: 3 of 4 Thursday games project as strong under candidates
• Friday Favorites: Tennessee and Auburn offer the most betting value

All odds current as of March 26, 9:30 AM ET. Line movement updates available at ESPN BET.