March Madness Upset Trends: Why 11-Seeds Are the New 12-Seeds in NCAA Tournament

The Shift in March Madness Upset Trends

Historically, 12-seeds have been the darlings of March Madness, known for their first-round upsets and occasional Sweet 16 runs. However, recent data suggests a significant shift in the tournament landscape. Since the expansion to 68 teams and the introduction of the First Four, 11-seeds have emerged as the new Cinderella story, outperforming their 12-seed counterparts in both first-round victories and deeper tournament runs.

The Decline of the 12-Seeds

From 1985 to 2014, 12-seeds were a reliable bet for bracket busters, winning 44 first-round games compared to 41 by 11-seeds. They also advanced to the Sweet 16 more frequently (20 times vs. 17 for 11-seeds). However, the tide has turned. Since 2015, 12-seeds have struggled, winning only 11 of 36 first-round games (.306 win percentage), a stark drop from their previous 37% success rate. Only two of those 11 winners advanced to the second round, and none have reached the Elite Eight since 2021.

The Rise of the 11-Seeds

In contrast, 11-seeds have thrived in the same period. Since 2015, they boast a 20-16 record (.556) against 6-seeds in the first round, a significant improvement from their .342 win percentage in the previous 30 years. At least one 11-seed has reached the Sweet 16 in eight of the past 10 tournaments, with multiple 11-seeds advancing in five of the last 13 tournaments. Notably, 11-seeds have made four Final Four appearances since 2011, a feat unmatched by 12-seeds.

Why 11-Seeds Are Succeeding

The expansion of the tournament field to 68 teams has created more at-large bids, often filled by 11-seeds. These teams, typically the "last four in," have shown remarkable resilience. Since 2015, 83% of First Four at-large teams were 11-seeds, and 12 of 13 First Four participants have won their first-round game. Eight of the past nine First Four winners were 11-seeds, with two reaching the Final Four (UCLA in 2021 and VCU in 2011).

Bracket Strategy for 2025

As you prepare your 2025 March Madness brackets, consider the following:

• Focus on 11-seeds: Their recent success makes them a safer upset pick than 12-seeds.
• Power Conference Teams: 11-seeds from power conferences have a higher chance of advancing.
• First Four Participants: Teams from the First Four often carry momentum into the tournament.

Conclusion

The era of 12-seeds as the go-to upset pick may be over. With 11-seeds consistently outperforming expectations, they have become the new darlings of March Madness. As you fill out your brackets, keep an eye on these underdogs—they might just lead you to victory.