Betting Trends and Key Storylines in March Madness 2025

The 2025 NCAA March Madness tournament is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent memory, with a mix of fresh talent, underdog comebacks, and the continued dominance of the SEC. Here’s a breakdown of the key betting storylines and trends to watch as the tournament unfolds.

Cooper Flagg’s Impact on Duke’s Odds

Duke’s freshman phenom, Cooper Flagg, has been a major talking point this season. Despite suffering an ankle injury during the ACC tournament, Flagg’s presence has kept Duke as the betting favorite (+300 at ESPN BET). Sportsbooks have had to adjust their odds in response to Flagg’s injury, with Caesars Sportsbook briefly offering +700. Flagg’s health will be crucial for Duke’s championship aspirations, as he is estimated to add roughly 4.5 to 5 points to the spread when fully healthy.

The Return of the Underdogs

Last year’s tournament saw a record number of favorites covering the spread, but bettors are anticipating a bounce-back from underdogs this year. BetMGM reports that the most-bet money lines are on underdogs, including Texas (+125), High Point (+300), and Drake (+220). The underdog trend is also evident in spread betting, with Akron (+13.5) and High Point (+8.5) among the most popular picks.

SEC Dominance

The SEC has established itself as one of the strongest conferences in college basketball, with a record 14 teams making the tournament. Auburn, the No. 1 overall seed, is currently +500 to win the title, while Florida has surged to +380 after opening the season at +6000. Florida’s long odds and popularity have made them a significant liability for sportsbooks, with BetMGM reporting a $100,000 bet on the Gators to win the national championship.

Key Betting Insights

• Top Teams Against the Spread: Robert Morris (26-7 ATS), UC San Diego (25-7 ATS), and Florida (26-8 ATS) are the best teams in the tournament field against the spread.
• Worst Teams Against the Spread: Baylor (12-20 ATS), Grand Canyon (13-19 ATS), and San Diego State (12-17 ATS) are the worst.
• Big Post-Bracket Odds Moves: UConn moved from 50-1 to 100-1, the largest bracket-related change in odds at ESPN BET.

Conclusion

As the 2025 NCAA March Madness tournament kicks off, the betting landscape is filled with intriguing storylines. From Cooper Flagg’s impact on Duke’s odds to the resurgence of underdogs and the SEC’s dominance, there’s no shortage of excitement for bettors and fans alike. Stay tuned for more updates and insights as the tournament progresses.