Top 10 NCAA Tournament First-Round Upset Predictions for 2025

The NCAA tournament, also known as March Madness, is famous for its unpredictability and thrilling upsets. Each year, double-digit seeds often defy the odds and advance to the second round, creating chaos in brackets across the nation. Here, we dive into the 10 most probable first-round upsets for the 2025 tournament, using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) as our guide.

(11) North Carolina vs. (6) Ole Miss

Upset Chance: 55% North Carolina, the controversial "last team in," has won eight of their last 10 games, thanks to the emergence of frontcourt players Ven-Allen Lubin and Jae'Lyn Withers. If they survive their First Four matchup against San Diego State, their first-round game against Ole Miss could hinge on which team's backcourt performs better.

(12) Colorado State vs. (5) Memphis

Upset Chance: 47% Colorado State enters the tournament on a 10-game winning streak, while Memphis has only one loss in the past two months. The Rams are favored to win at ESPN BET, and the matchup between CSU's Nique Clifford and Memphis's PJ Haggerty will be one to watch.

(11) VCU vs. (6) BYU

Upset Chance: 43% This game features contrasting styles: BYU loves to shoot from deep, while VCU leads the nation in effective FG% defense. The Rams will look to capitalize on BYU's turnover-prone ways and guard the 3-point line to advance.

(11) Texas vs. (6) Illinois

Upset Chance: 42% Texas, a 15-loss team, received an at-large bid due to their tough conference schedule. Star freshman Tre Johnson will be a handful for Illinois, and the Longhorns' battle-tested nature could give them an edge.

(11) Xavier vs. (6) Illinois

Upset Chance: 39% Xavier has a history of being a Giant Killer, reaching the Elite Eight in 2017 as an 11-seed. Ryan Conwell's recent performance (24.4 PPG on 59% 3-point shooting) could be key if they advance past Texas.

(11) San Diego State vs. (6) Ole Miss

Upset Chance: 37% San Diego State's defense will be crucial if they advance past North Carolina. The return of 7-foot redshirt freshman Magoon Gwath could significantly improve their chances against Ole Miss.

(12) UC San Diego vs. (5) Michigan

Upset Chance: 33% UC San Diego, in their first year of eligibility, is top 10 in turnover percentage on both offense and defense. Michigan's pair of 7-footers, Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf, will present a unique challenge.

(11) Drake vs. (6) Missouri

Upset Chance: 27% Drake's defense has been stellar, giving up 60 or fewer points in half of their games. Missouri's high-scoring offense will test the Bulldogs' ability to limit possessions.

(12) Liberty vs. (5) Oregon

Upset Chance: 24% Liberty's shooting prowess (58% on 2-pointers and 39% from deep) gives them a fighting chance. However, Oregon's 7-footer Nate Bittle has been in top form recently.

(13) Yale vs. (4) Texas A&M

Upset Chance: 22% Yale's strong backcourt, led by Ivy League Player of the Year Bez Mbeng, will need to contend with Texas A&M's offensive rebounding, which grabs 42% of their own misses.

These matchups highlight the potential for chaos in the first round of the 2025 NCAA tournament. Whether you're filling out a bracket or just enjoying the madness, keep an eye on these games for possible upsets.