Predicting Early-Round Upsets in NCAA Women's Tournament

Upsets in the NCAA Women's Tournament, while rare, can dramatically alter the course of the competition. Last year, only one lower seed managed to secure a victory in the first round. However, the 2023 tournament saw four such upsets, and 2022 had five. This year, we anticipate several potential upsets in the early rounds. Here are the top 10 games where lower-seeded teams could pull off surprising victories.

(10) South Dakota State vs. (7) Oklahoma State

Upset Chance: 32.6% South Dakota State has a history of success in March, including a Sweet 16 appearance in 2019. With Brooklyn Meyer leading the charge, the Jackrabbits are poised to challenge Oklahoma State.

(10) Harvard vs. (7) Michigan State

Upset Chance: 24.2% Harvard's Harmoni Turner is on fire, averaging 31.3 points over the last four games. Coupled with the nation's fourth-best defense, the Crimson could surprise Michigan State.

(12) Fairfield vs. (5) Kansas State

Upset Chance: 6.5% Despite a lopsided BPI projection, Kansas State's recent struggles without Ayoka Lee could open the door for Fairfield, especially if they can capitalize on their 3-point shooting.

(11) Murray State vs. (6) Iowa

Upset Chance: 14.7% Murray State's fast-paced offense, led by Katelyn Young, could pose a significant challenge to Iowa. If Young outperforms Iowa's key players, an upset is possible.

(7) Vanderbilt vs. (2) Duke

Upset Chance: TBD Vanderbilt's high-scoring duo of Mikayla Blakes and Khamil Pierre will test Duke's top-five defense. If Vanderbilt can maintain their offensive momentum, they could pull off a shocker.

(11) Iowa State vs. (6) Michigan

Upset Chance: TBD Iowa State's Audi Crooks could be the difference-maker against Michigan. If Crooks dominates the post, the Cyclones have a strong chance of advancing.

(7) Louisville vs. (2) TCU

Upset Chance: TBD Louisville's young team has nothing to lose, while TCU's veteran squad faces internal pressure. If Louisville can exploit this, they could upset the Horned Frogs.

(12) Green Bay vs. (5) Alabama

Upset Chance: 7.5% Green Bay's deliberate pace and strong 3-point shooting could frustrate Alabama. If they can control the game's tempo, an upset is within reach.

(11) George Mason vs. (6) Florida State

Upset Chance: 18% George Mason's recent momentum and Vanessa Blair-Lewis's coaching could lead to a surprise victory over Florida State, especially if Ta'Niya Latson has an off game.

(11) Washington vs. (6) West Virginia

Upset Chance: TBD Washington's efficient shooting could counter West Virginia's defensive pressure. If the Huskies can break the press, they have a good chance of advancing.

These potential upsets highlight the unpredictable nature of March Madness, where anything can happen. Keep an eye on these games as the tournament unfolds.