Unearthing Hidden Gems: Breakout Pitchers to Watch in the 2025 MLB Season

The Evolution of Pitching in MLB

In recent years, the landscape of Major League Baseball (MLB) has seen a significant shift in pitching strategies. With declining workloads and fewer pitchers reaching the 180-inning mark, fantasy baseball managers are constantly on the lookout for hidden gems who can deliver consistent performance. The 2024 season was a testament to this trend, with only 21 pitchers achieving the 180-inning milestone, the lowest in any non-shortened season in history.

Identifying the 'Kings of Command'

To navigate this challenging environment, fantasy managers need to identify pitchers with elite skill sets whose surface statistics may not reflect their true potential. These are the 'Kings of Command'—pitchers who excel in key statistical categories such as swinging-strike rate, first-pitch strike rate, and command rate. In 2024, 98 pitchers (40 starters and 58 relievers) met these stringent criteria, including Cy Young Award winners and top fantasy performers.

Breakout Candidates for 2025

Here are nine pitchers who, despite flying under the radar in 2024, possess the skills to make a significant impact in the 2025 season:

1. David Festa, Minnesota Twins

• Strengths: Festa boasts a 95-mph fastball and a devastating slider-changeup combo, generating a 16.4% swinging-strike rate in Triple-A.
• Breakout Potential: Introducing a new sinker and pitching exclusively from the stretch could elevate his game.

2. Robert Garcia, Texas Rangers

• Strengths: Garcia's 2.39 FIP and electric changeup make him a formidable force against right-handed hitters.
• Breakout Potential: Improved luck and a role in the late innings could boost his fantasy value.

3. Chris Martin, Texas Rangers

• Strengths: Martin's exceptional control and consistent performance make him a reliable option in the bullpen.
• Breakout Potential: Staying healthy and securing the closer role could solidify his status.

4. Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers

• Strengths: Olson's slider and changeup are elite strikeout pitches, with whiff rates exceeding 43%.
• Breakout Potential: Improved command of his fastball and changeup could reignite his early-season promise.

5. Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins

• Strengths: Paddack's control and first-pitch strike rate are among the best in the league.
• Breakout Potential: Staying healthy and maintaining command of his changeup are key to his success.

6. Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks

• Strengths: Pfaadt's control and pitch mix make him a tough matchup for right-handed hitters.
• Breakout Potential: Better luck and improved performance against lefties could elevate his game.

7. A.J. Puk, Arizona Diamondbacks

• Strengths: Puk's fastball and slider generate excellent whiff rates, making him a strikeout machine.
• Breakout Potential: A bullpen role that allows him to accumulate saves or holds could maximize his fantasy value.

8. Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies

• Strengths: Sanchez's changeup is one of the best in the league, and his control has improved significantly.
• Breakout Potential: A higher whiff rate with his sinker could propel him to new heights.

9. Spencer Schwellenbach, Atlanta Braves

• Strengths: Schwellenbach's diverse pitch arsenal and low walk rate make him a promising young arm.
• Breakout Potential: Increased reliance on his cutter or curveball against lefties could narrow his wOBA split.

Conclusion

As the 2025 MLB season approaches, fantasy baseball managers should keep a close eye on these 'Kings of Command.' With the right adjustments and a bit of luck, these pitchers have the potential to deliver breakout performances and become valuable assets to any fantasy team.