The Decline of Small School Prospects in the NFL: Trends and Implications

The Decline of Small School Prospects in the NFL

Fewer Non-FBS Players at the NFL Combine

The 2025 NFL combine saw only seven non-FBS players, marking a 10-year low. This significant drop reflects broader trends in college football, driven by NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) money and the transfer portal. Players from smaller schools are increasingly transferring to FBS programs to gain better exposure and financial incentives.

Grey Zabel's Story

Grey Zabel, a tackle from North Dakota State, was one of the few FCS players at the combine. Despite offers from Power 4 FBS programs, Zabel chose to stay with the Bison, citing the program's culture and his loyalty to his teammates. "It's tough for a lot of these guys to turn down that type of money," Zabel admitted, referencing the six-figure offers he declined.

Impact of NIL and Transfer Rules

The introduction of NIL money and the one-time transfer rule in 2021 has revolutionized college football. Players can now transfer to higher-level programs without sitting out a season, leading to a steady decline in small school players at the combine. From 2016 to 2021, an average of 20.5 small schoolers were invited to the combine. Since 2022, that average has dropped to 14.5.

Implications for NFL Teams

The shift has forced NFL teams to adapt their scouting processes. "Go where the players are," said one scouting director. With fewer prospects from small schools, NFL teams are focusing more on players from Power 4 conferences. This trend makes it increasingly rare to find hidden gems like Khalil Mack, who played at Buffalo before becoming a top-five pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.

Player Loyalty and Development

Despite the allure of larger programs, some players remain loyal to their small schools. Marcus Yarns, a running back from Delaware, chose to stay with the Blue Hens despite offers from bigger programs. "Delaware really believes in me, and they have trust in me," Yarns explained. His decision paid off with a strong senior season, showcasing his talent and securing his place at the combine.

Future of Small School Prospects

As college football continues to evolve, the path to the NFL for small school players becomes more challenging. NIL money and the transfer portal have created a new dynamic, pushing players to seek opportunities at higher levels before turning pro. While this benefits players financially, it raises questions about the future of small school programs and their ability to develop NFL talent.

Conclusion

The decline of small school prospects at the NFL combine highlights the changing landscape of college football. With NIL money and transfer rules reshaping the game, players from smaller programs face increasing pressure to move up to FBS schools. This trend not only impacts the players but also forces NFL teams to rethink their scouting strategies. As the sport continues to evolve, the role of small schools in developing NFL talent may become a relic of the past.